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How accurate are Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay in reference to the Vikings?

 
Posted May 9th, 2014 @ 5:27pm

By Joe Perovich, KFAN Productions Intern

Five first-round picks in two years? Sub out the mock drafts and embrace the subterfuge.

Anthony Barr is a Viking, Teddy Bridgewater is a Viking, Mel’s hair gel supply is endangered, McShay’s campaigning to be put back up on the Dollar Menu, and mock draft season has bid us farewell.

To commemorate its departure, let’s go over the accuracy and inaccuracy of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay in relation to the Minnesota Vikings in the past five years.

To whom did ESPN’s mock draft aficionados have the Vikings selecting in their final mock drafts?

Year/

MIN Pick

Mel

Kiper

Todd

McShay

Actual

Outcome

2009 (No. 22)

Kenny Britt (Picked 30th)

Percy Harvin (Picked 22nd)

Percy Harvin

2010 (No. 30)

Tim Tebow

(Picked 25th)

Jimmy Clausen (Picked 48th)

(N/A, Traded back)

2011 (No. 12)

Jake Locker

(Picked 8th)

Anthony Castonzo

(Picked 22nd)

Christian Ponder

2012 (No. 3)

Matt Kalil

(Picked 3rd)

Morris Claiborne

(Picked 6th)

Matt Kalil

2013 (No. 23, 25)

Robert Woods (Picked 41st),

Alec Ogletree (Picked 30th)

Sylvester Williams (Picked 22nd), Manti Te’o

(Picked 38th)

Floyd,

Rhodes, Patterson

(N/A, Added pick)

2014 (No. 8)

Aaron Donald (Picked 13th)

Justin Gilbert (Picked 8th by Browns )

Anthony Barr (traded back to No.9)

To no fault of their own, we can observe plenty of incorrect predictions by McShay and Kiper.

The NFL Draft is convoluted by nature, and each year we’re treated to a continuous shake-up of the draft’s order. You know, the draft order that each and every mock draft since December had been based upon.

However, both McShay and Kiper Jr. embark on a journey to payroll each week because of their ability to project out. So I don’t have a problem critiquing their knowledge as it pertains to the thought process of Vikings’ GM Rick Spielman.

Kiper: 1-for-5 (when his predicted player was on the board for the Vikings to take)

McShay: 1-for-5 (when his predicted player was on the board for the Vikings to take.)

Aaron Donald was an extremely talented interior disruptor on an extremely talented Pittsburgh defense in 2013, but he would have only been plausible at No. 8 if the LB, QB, S, and CB options were so undesirable that a historically bad defense would patch an area with no hole. Even if he had been the Vikings favorite player on the board at No. 8, the gap in talent from position-to-position wasn’t drastic enough to prompt any consideration.

McShay’s misfire was more apparent. By making a deal with the Cleveland Browns and giving them ownership of the No. 8 selection, the Vikings essentially said, “We’ll take a Saturday pick if there’s a team eager to secure their guy that is not our guy.”

Sure, there’s certainly a chance that Kiper or McShay could be spot-on with a Vikings selection in future years, but that chart shows us that they haven’t agreed once on the team’s selection in the day’s leading up to the draft.

In the coming years, be wary if you find yourself too enamored or invested in the hysteria of mock drafts. What we’re told to believe is often not what we receive.

 

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