Lightning vs. Wild Prediction & Picks - March 3

Minnesota Wild v Vegas Golden Knights — Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images

The Eastern Conference's second-ranked squad, the Tampa Bay Lightning (38-16-4), visit the third-ranked unit from the Western Conference, the Minnesota Wild (35-16-10), on Tuesday, March 3 at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Here's our prediction for who will capture the victory in Tuesday's game.

In the last 10 contests, the Wild have gone 7-2-1 while scoring 39 total goals (12 power-play goals on 32 power-play opportunities during that span, for a conversion rate of 37.5%). They have conceded 31 goals.

Lightning vs. Wild Predictions for Tuesday

Our computer projection model for this contest calls for a final tally of Wild 4, Lightning 3.

Moneyline Pick: Wild (+119)
Total Pick: Under 6 (computer predicts 5.8 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Wild (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning (38-16-4 overall) have a 9-4-13 record in matchups that have gone to overtime.
In the 18 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has an 8-8-2 record (good for 18 points).
Looking at the five times this season the Lightning finished a game with just one goal, they have a 2-2-1 record, good for five points.
Tampa Bay has finished 4-6-3 in the 13 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (registering 11 points).
The Lightning are 32-6-0 in the 38 games when they have scored at least three goals (to record 64 points).
In the 19 games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it has a 12-5-2 record (26 points).
In the 32 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 19-10-3 (41 points).
The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 25 times, and went 18-6-1 (37 points).

Wild Splits and Trends

The Wild have posted a record of 13-10-23 in overtime games to contribute to an overall mark of 35-16-10.
In the 20 games Minnesota has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 29 points.
Across the nine games this season the Wild finished with only one goal, they have earned four points.
Minnesota has eight points (3-7-2) when scoring a pair of goals this season.
The Wild have scored at least three goals 40 times, earning 68 points from those matchups (31-3-6).
This season, Minnesota has recorded a single power-play goal in 27 games and picked up 36 points with a record of 16-7-4.
When outshooting its opponent this season, Minnesota is 16-5-5 (37 points).
The Wild's opponents have had more shots in 34 games. The Wild finished 18-11-5 in those contests (41 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning Rank	Lightning AVG		Wild AVG	Wild Rank
2nd	3.53	Goals Scored	3.28	12th
2nd	2.6	Goals Allowed	2.89	10th
14th	28.4	Shots	28.7	11th
9th	26.7	Shots Allowed	30.2	30th
14th	21.31%	Power Play %	26%	5th
5th	83.06%	Penalty Kill %	77.56%	23rd

Lightning vs. Wild Game Time and TV Channel

When: Tuesday, March 3, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: TNT
Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
Where: Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, Minnesota